USD/JPY Analysis September 21, 2023

USD/JPY Analysis September 21, 2023
Create at 5 months ago (Sep 21, 2023 17:06)

Japan faces a trade deficit due to reduced demand in China.

The Japanese yen has continuously weakened, with the yen depreciating near its highest point since the beginning of November 2022. This is due to increasing disparities in monetary policies between the United States and Japan. Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (FED) in the United States may raise interest rates again this year, whereas the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its short-term interest rate at -0.1%. However, some investors speculate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in an upcoming meeting.

 

Former finance ministry officials stated that "easing of monetary policy can potentially lead to further depreciation of the yen, but currency intervention may not occur because the yen's depreciation is not rapid compared to previous instances of intervention in September or October. However, there is still a possibility of further yen depreciation."

 

Japan's trade balance has decreased once again, with a deficit of 930.5 billion yen in August, compared to 2,790.4 billion yen in the same month of the previous year. This decline is primarily due to a consecutive 2-month decrease in exports, amid weakened foreign demand, particularly from China.

 

Imports into Japan contracted by 17.8% YoY, amounting to 8,924.82 billion yen in August, following a 13.6% decline in July. The steepest decrease in imports was in energy, which fell by 36.6%. On the export front, Japan's exports decreased by 0.8% YoY, totaling 7,994.35 billion yen. This marks the second consecutive month of export decline. While exports to the United States increased slightly, exports to China saw a significant decrease due to economic issues in the country.

 

The depreciation of the Japanese yen has greatly benefited Japan's exports, as it supports the competitiveness of its exports by making them more affordable. However, the prolonged use of monetary easing policies has been criticized by investors for distorting market dynamics and affecting the profitability of banks and other businesses.

 

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen above 0.7%, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, following comments from Haruhiko Kuroda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stating that the central bank could end negative interest rates when inflation is stably around 2%. The BOJ may have sufficient data by the end of this year and is expected to consider raising interest rates within the year, resulting in an increase in yields on Japanese government bonds during this period.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 148.47, 148.59, 148.73

Support: 148.20, 148.07, 147.94

 

USD/JPY Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points September 21, 2023 04:57 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 147.94 148.07 148.20 148.33 148.47 148.59 148.73
Fibonacci 148.07 148.17 148.23 148.33 148.43 148.49 148.59
Camarilla 148.28 148.30 148.33 148.33 148.37 148.40 148.42
Woodie's 147.96 148.08 148.22 148.34 148.49 148.60 148.75
DeMark's - - 148.14 148.30 148.40 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touch of support in the price range of 148.07 - 148.20 but it cannot break the support at 148.20, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 148.59 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 147.94, or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks through the resistance in the price range of 148.47 - 148.59, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 148.73 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 148.07, or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touch of resistance in the price range of 148.47 - 148.59 but it cannot break the resistance at 148.59, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 148.07 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 148.73, or according to your acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks through the support in the price range of 148.07 - 148.20, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 147.94 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 148.59, or according to your acceptable risk.

 
Technical Indicators September 21, 2023 04:57 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 60.138 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 67.428 Buy
STOCHRSI(14) 52.040 Neutral
MACD(12,26) 0.220 Buy
ADX(14) 34.412 Buy
Williams %R -27.920 Buy
CCI(14) 137.4866 Buy
ATR(14) 0.3125 High Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.1343 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 59.468 Buy
ROC 0.298 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.5460 Buy

Buy:10

Sell:0

Neutral:1

Summary:Strong Buy

______________________________
Maximize your knowledgeBlog
Keep up to date on global events:News
Explore in-depth analysis: Analysis
Tags:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ARTICLES