USD/RUB Analysis October 6, 2023

USD/RUB Analysis October 6, 2023
Create at 6 months ago (Oct 06, 2023 14:32)

Labor shortage remains a major problem in Russia.

The Russian ruble continues to weaken, depreciating by over 100 rubles per US dollar due to the strengthening of the dollar. This has led many companies to move their assets to lower-risk locations. Additionally, inflation in Russia is on the rise again, as evidenced by increases over the past 2-3 months. This has forced the Central Bank of Russia to raise interest rates significantly, impacting economic growth and increasing borrowing costs.


The ongoing economic challenges have also resulted in poor exports for Russia, making trade with Europe and the G7 nations more difficult. Furthermore, China's economy has not fully recovered, contributing to a 77% decrease in Russia's trade surplus compared to the previous year in July. The weakening ruble has also led to higher import costs, particularly for essential consumer goods and food, burdening the Russian population.


In terms of trade with the United States, it has also been unfavorable, with a trade surplus decreasing to $58.3 billion in August. Despite a 1.6% increase in exports, the stronger dollar has limited the gains from exports. Additionally, competition in the semiconductor sector with China and export bans on certain products have reduced trade with China, resulting in a 1.3 billion dollar decrease in the trade surplus. Simultaneously, imports have decreased by 0.7%, totaling $314.3 billion, with increased imports of crude oil and various metals.


The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Russia's manufacturing sector rose to 54.5 in September, up from 52.7 the previous month. Much of this expansion is driven by domestic demand, as reduced trade has only slightly increased new orders from foreign countries. The current economic conditions have reduced the spending capacity of foreign companies, affecting global market demand.


The number of employed individuals in Russia increased to 74.20 million in August, up from 74 million in the previous month. Hiring has increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors, despite rising raw material and labor costs. The demand within the country has been a driving force for increased employment, including the deployment of personnel for military purposes, contributing to labor shortages.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 101.4588, 102.0019, 102.5288

Support: 100.3888, 99.8619, 99.3188

 

USD/RUB Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points October 6, 2023 02:18 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 99.3188 99.8619 100.3888 100.9319 101.4588 102.0019 102.5288
Fibonacci 99.8619 100.2706 100.5232 100.9319 101.3406 101.5932 102.0019
Camarilla 100.6214 100.7194 100.8175 100.9319 101.0137 101.1118 101.2099
Woodie's 99.3106 99.8578 100.3806 100.9278 101.4506 101.9978 102.5206
DeMark's - - 100.6603 101.0677 101.7303 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches the support level in the price range of 99.8619 - 100.3888 but cannot break through the support at 100.3888, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 102.0019 and a Stop Loss (SL) at approximately 99.3188 or according to your acceptable risk level.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price break through the resistance level in the price range of 101.4588 - 102.0019, you might consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 102.5288 and a Stop Loss (SL) at approximately 99.8619 or in accordance with your acceptable risk level.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches the resistance level in the price range of 101.4588 - 102.0019 but cannot break through the resistance at 101.4588, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 99.8619 and a Stop Loss (SL) at approximately 102.5288 or according to your acceptable risk level.


Sell/Short 2: If the price break through the support level in the price range of 99.8619 - 100.3888, you might consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 99.3188 and a Stop Loss (SL) at approximately 102.0019 or in accordance with your acceptable risk level.

 
Technical Indicators October 6, 2023 02:18 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 85.444 Overbought
STOCH(9,6) 53.123 Neutral
STOCHRSI(14) 93.959 Overbought
MACD(12,26) 0.817 Buy
ADX(14) 37.815 Buy
Williams %R -25.191 Buy
CCI(14) 194.2234 Buy
ATR(14) 0.3440 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.8016 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 59.116 Buy
ROC 1.593 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 1.9759 Buy

Buy:8

Sell:0

Neutral:1

Summary:Strong Buy

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