RBA may delay interest rate cuts.

The Australian dollar remains steady as investors continue to evaluate the monetary policy outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) based on mixed economic data. Currently, investors are closely watching July's inflation expectations data this week to analyze the monetary policy trend. Investors have reduced their expectations for an RBA rate hike to 22% in August. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remains strong compared to other currencies amidst expectations that the RBA will cut rates more slowly than other central banks.

The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.2 in June from 49.7 in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. New orders from manufacturers continued to decline, leading to the fastest production decline in three months. This downturn has negatively impacted employment, inventory levels, and capital goods purchasing activities.

Australia's leading economic index, which indicates economic activity over the next 3-9 months, remained stable in May. Meanwhile, previous high interest rates, falling commodity prices, and a weak housing market have kept growth forecasts stable and raised concerns about a potential recession without adequate support.

Matthew Hassan, a senior economist, noted that the index indicates slightly below-trend growth in the second half of 2024 and into early 2025. Weak GDP growth is a key signal that will influence future monetary policy. Investors predict that the central bank will maintain interest rates at the August meeting due to unclear economic data.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute's consumer confidence index for Australia rose by 1.7% month-on-month to a three-month high of 83.6 in June. However, the latest result remains far below the neutral level of 100, as financial support measures have been insufficient to alleviate concerns about high inflation and rising interest rates. Household expenses have increased by more than 9.7% compared to last year, leading to a 5.7% drop in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook for the next 12 months, down to just 78.5.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1.4854, 1.4871, 1.4891

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 1.4797 - 1.4817 but cannot break the support at 1.4817, you may set a TP at approximately 1.4871 and SL at around 1.478 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 1.4854 - 1.4871, you may set a TP at approximately 1.4891 and SL at around 1.4797 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 1.4854 - 1.4871 but cannot break the resistance at 1.4797, you may set a TP at approximately 1.4854 and SL at around 1.4891 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 1.4797 - 1.4817, you may set a TP at approximately 1.478 and SL at around 1.4871 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point July 10, 2024 07:38 PM. GMT+7