US stock market analysis (November 21, 2023)

Create at 7 months ago (Nov 21, 2023 10:20)

U.S. Stocks Soar on Record Highs, AI Moves, and Fed Meeting Anticipation

In the U.S. stock market, futures edged higher as investors prepared for a Thanksgiving-shortened trading week. The focus was on the upcoming release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and earnings reports. The week started with Wall Street's major indexes closing higher, with the Nasdaq leading the gains with a 1% rally, fueled by Microsoft's record-high stock after hiring prominent AI executives.

The U.S. dollar declined to its lowest in over two months, driven by expectations that U.S. interest rates had peaked. Global equities experienced broad gains, and U.S. treasury yields decreased after an auction, while global oil futures rose $2 on anticipation of supply cuts.

The previous session saw Wall Street's main indices closing marginally higher, contributing to the Dow's highest closing level since August 9 and the Nasdaq's highest since July 31, driven by upward movements in the Technology, Telecoms, and Consumer Services sectors. The S&P 500 closed higher, marking its first close above 4,500 since August and its third consecutive week of gains.

Microsoft's stock rose 2% to a record high after hiring Sam Altman to lead a new advanced AI research team. Nvidia's stock also rose 2% to an all-time high ahead of its quarterly results, crucial for gauging AI demand amid U.S. chip restrictions and competition from Microsoft.

Boeing rose over 4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating to buy, expecting increased aircraft deliveries to boost cash flow. Zoom Video Communications rose more than 1% in afterhours trading following strong Q3 results.

Energy stocks benefited from rising oil prices on expectations of major producers discussing deeper output cuts.

U.S. Treasury yields saw an uptick, with the bond market adjusting to a new landscape following Jerome Powell's comments and softer inflation data. Traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December, with a growing expectation of a rate cut by next summer. The release of November meeting minutes on Tuesday is awaited for insights into U.S. interest rate directions. Black Friday foot traffic will serve as a key indicator of U.S. consumer spending to conclude the week.

Moody's Investors Service stated that despite recent Treasury market volatility, the structural demand for U.S. debt supporting the global financial system remained strong. Moody's had lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" earlier in the month due to fiscal deficits and declining debt affordability.

The week ahead included the release of November FOMC meeting minutes and earnings reports from companies like Nvidia, Zoom Video, Lowe’s, Medtronic, and others. Hence, it could result in the overall positive trajectory of the U.S. stock index persisting through the year's end and the start of the upcoming year.

Data for Technical Analysis (5H) CFD US30 DJIA

Resistance : 35180.4, 35192.1, 35211.1

Support : 35142.4, 35130.7, 35111.7                         

5H Outlook

US stock market analysis Source: Investing.com                            

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 35092.4 - 35142.4 is touched, but the support at 35142.4 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 35190.8 and the SL around 35067.0, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 35180.4 - 35230.4, TP may be set around 35255.0 and SL around 35117.0, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 35180.4 - 35230.4 is touched, but the resistance at 35180.4 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 35141.1 and the SL around 35255.0, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 35092.4 - 35142.4, TP may be set around 35080.0 and SL around 35205.0, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Nov 21, 2023 02:33AM GMT

Name
S3
S2
S1
Pivot Points
R1
R2
R3
Classic 35091.4 35111.7 35141.1 35161.4 35190.8 35211.1 35240.5
Fibonacci 35111.7 35130.7 35142.4 35161.4 35180.4 35192.1 35211.1
Camarilla 35156.9 35161.5 35166 35161.4 35175.2 35179.7 35184.3
Woodie's 35096 35114 35145.7 35163.7 35195.4 35213.4 35245.1
DeMark's - - 35151.3 35166.5 35201 - -

Sources: Investing 1Investing 2

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