US stock market analysis (November 14, 2023)

Create at 3 weeks ago (Nov 14, 2023 10:01)

S&P 500 Futures Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

U.S. stocks displayed a mixed performance at the Monday close, influenced by sectoral variations, with Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas, and Healthcare gaining, while Utilities, Technology, and Financials faced losses. Futures remained flat on Monday night, awaiting a crucial inflation report scheduled for Tuesday. The S&P 500, exhibiting resilience, maintained stability after overcoming a recent three-month downtrend.

Consumer sentiment, as per surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the University of Michigan, reflects a nuanced outlook. Despite a slight dip in sentiment due to inflation concerns, stable inflation rates and a resilient labor market may influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate hikes. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is forecasted to decline.

Survey data also indicates a decline in one-year inflation expectations to 3.6%, potentially signaling a steadier view of inflation over a longer horizon. While job security concerns rose slightly, income expectations remained positive, reflecting consumer confidence.

The University of Michigan's polling suggests a six-month low in consumer sentiment about inflation rates. Spending patterns diverge among income levels, with high-income individuals continuing to spend, while lower-income consumers exhibit cutbacks.

Looking ahead, the Labor Department's announcement of October's Consumer Price Index will be crucial, with economists forecasting a year-over-year inflation rate decrease. U.S. manufacturing faces challenges due to lackluster consumer spending and excess stocks from pandemic-related disruptions.

Investors braced for a significant week of economic data and corporate earnings, seeking insights into the U.S. economy's health and consumer behavior.

Retailers like Home Depot, Walmart, and Target are set to release earnings, providing a snapshot of consumer demand and retail performance ahead of the holiday season. Investors are cautious due to rising credit card debt, depleted pandemic-era savings, and higher interest rates, anticipating potential discounts from Walmart and Target during the holiday season. Walmart's decision not to hire seasonal workers is seen as a significant indicator, according to Sizemore Capital Management.

Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to "negative" added to concerns about a potential government shutdown. Following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this week will feature key economic indicators like housing, unemployment, and producer prices, offering insights for the Federal Reserve ahead of their December meeting. While there might be an inclination for the US stock market index to experience an upward adjustment and stabilize in the near term, the structural vulnerabilities in both the US and global economies could exert pressure on the overall stock market at any given moment.

Data for Technical Analysis (5H) CFD US 500 [S&P 500]

Resistance : 4417.9, 4420.3, 4424.2

Support : 4410.1, 4407.7, 4403.8                            

5H Outlook

US stock market analysis Source:               

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 4390.1 - 4410.1 is touched, but the support at 4410.1 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 4418.3 and the SL around 4380.1, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 4417.9 - 4437.9, TP may be set around 4445.0 and SL around 4400.0, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 4417.9 - 4437.9 is touched, but the resistance at 4417.9 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 4408.1 and the SL around 4447.9, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 4390.1 - 4410.1, TP may be set around 4380.0 and SL around 4427.0, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Nov 14, 2023 02:27AM GMT

Pivot Points
Classic 4397.9 4403.8 4408.1 4414 4418.3 4424.2 4428.5
Fibonacci 4403.8 4407.7 4410.1 4414 4417.9 4420.3 4424.2
Camarilla 4409.5 4410.4 4411.4 4414 4413.2 4414.2 4415.1
Woodie's 4396.9 4403.3 4407.1 4413.5 4417.3 4423.7 4427.5
DeMark's - - 4405.9 4412.9 4416.1 - -

Sources: Investing 1Investing 2

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