Russia continues to invest resources in the military.

The Russian ruble remains slightly weak compared to the dollar. This issue continues to be attributed to an economy that still faces labor shortages and contracting exports. Furthermore, the latest inflation rate has shown a rapid increase with a tendency to rise further. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has also adjusted its interest rates policy to continuously combat inflation.

Russia's unemployment rate remains stable at 3%, which is considered historically low. However, this decrease in unemployment is not due to a rapidly growing domestic economy but rather the severe labor shortages caused by the conflict in Ukraine. This has led to increased demand for military personnel, resulting in mobilization and relocation, which in turn reduced the number of unemployed people by 8,000 from the previous month, leaving 2.268 million people unemployed. Officially registered unemployment decreased to 0.569 million people.

Wages in Russia increased by 9.2% YoY in July, with a slight slowdown from the previous month's 10.5% increase. The wage increases are also a result of labor shortages. In comparison, the annual inflation rate in Russia stood at 4.3% in July, which is seen as positive news as wage growth outpaces inflation. However, these wage increases also represent increased costs that businesses must bear.

Retail sales in Russia increased by 11% compared to the previous year. The significant growth in retail trade activity can be attributed to a comparison with the previous year when retail sales contracted. However, it can be noted that the Russian economy is gradually showing signs of recovery, although it is still below pre-recession levels.

Industrial production in Russia increased by 5.4% YoY in August, with a significant boost from the computer and electronics manufacturing sector, followed by the important automotive sector, which is necessary to support military equipment.

The yield on 10-year Russian government bonds (OFZs) increased to 12.6%, significantly higher than the rates seen during the economic downturn caused by sanctions from the United States. Concerns persist about Russia's fiscal deficit, with a deficit of approximately 2.4 trillion rubles in the first eight months of the year due to increased military spending and reduced revenue, particularly from declining oil exports. Additionally, weak growth in China is another factor contributing to the export contraction.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 97.1198, 97.2658, 97.5345

Support: 96.7051, 96.4364, 96.2904

Source: Investing.com