The Australian dollar is starting to weaken again following the strengthening of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates as expected but signaled a potential rate hike later this year. Additionally, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 5.2% from 4.9% in July, primarily due to rising energy prices, while inflation rates in other sectors saw a slight decrease.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 4.1% in its recent meeting after considering the possibility of a 25 bps rate hike, marking the third consecutive month of rate stability. However, policymakers reiterated that inflation remains above target and suggested the need for another rate increase to help bring inflation back within the 2-3% target range.
The RBA's decision to raise interest rates will depend on domestic economic growth and the inflation rate of various goods. The RBA has forecasted that the inflation rate will be around 3.25% by the end of 2027 and return to the target range by late 2028. Currently, the Australian economy is growing below expectations, leading to a gradual increase in the unemployment rate to approximately 4.5% by the end of next year.
The leading economic indicator, which forecasts economic activity trends in Australia for the next 3-9 months, currently stands at -0.50%. This suggests that the Australian economy is expected to remain weak in the coming year, with projections of growth below 1% until June 2027.
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia increased to 5.2% from 4.9% in July, primarily due to rising energy prices, while inflation rates in other sectors saw a slight decrease.
The yield on Australian 10-year government bonds has risen above 4.4%, marking a 12-year high. This increase is driven by investor expectations that global interest rates will remain high for an extended period, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has also signaled another rate hike by the end of this year. This has provided support for the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) and put pressure on the bond markets, pushing the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to 4.56%.
Resistance: 1.5642, 1.5675, 1.5693
Support: 1.5590, 1.5571, 1.5539
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 1.5539 | 1.5571 | 1.5590 | 1.5623 | 1.5642 | 1.5675 | 1.5693 |
| Fibonacci | 1.5571 | 1.5591 | 1.5603 | 1.5623 | 1.5643 | 1.5655 | 1.5675 |
| Camarilla | 1.5594 | 1.5598 | 1.5603 | 1.5623 | 1.5613 | 1.5617 | 1.5622 |
| Woodie's | 1.5531 | 1.5567 | 1.5582 | 1.5619 | 1.5634 | 1.5671 | 1.5685 |
| DeMark's | - | - | 1.5580 | 1.5618 | 1.5632 | - | - |
Buy/Long 1: If the price touches the support zone between 1.5571 - 1.5590 but fails to break above 1.5590, you may consider setting a TP level around 1.5675 and a SL around 1.5539 or according to your acceptable risk level.
Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance zone between 1.5642 - 1.5675, you can contemplate setting a TP around 1.5693 and an SL around 1.5571 or based on your acceptable risk level.
Sell/Short 1: If the price touches the resistance zone between 1.5642 - 1.5675 but fails to break above 1.5642, you might consider setting a TP around 1.5571 and an SL around 1.5693 or in accordance with your acceptable risk level.
Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks below the support zone between 1.5571 - 1.5590, you can think about setting a TP around 1.5539 and an SL around 1.5675 or based on your acceptable risk level.
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 63.533 | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | 64.559 | Buy |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 100.000 | Overbought |
| MACD(12,26) | 0.003 | Buy |
| ADX(14) | 36.647 | Buy |
| Williams %R | -5.701 | Overbought |
| CCI(14) | 155.1012 | Buy |
| ATR(14) | 0.0050 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | 0.0070 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 60.257 | Buy |
| ROC | 1.094 | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 0.0097 | Buy |
|
Buy:9 Sell:0 Neutral:0 Summary:Strong Buy |
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