The Russian economy has begun to recover slightly.

The Russian ruble has been continuously depreciating, with Russia facing ongoing pressure from foreign countries. Russia has made efforts to prevent capital outflows and has raised interest rates to maintain the stability of the ruble's value. Additionally, the sanctions imposed by several countries have further stimulated an increase in imports, leading to a 75% reduction in trade surplus in June compared to the previous year and a 53% decrease from pre-conflict levels with Ukraine.

The rapid economic downturn in China, along with internal conflicts, is undoubtedly hindering Russia's growth. Imports from Russia's key trading partner, China, have decreased significantly. Currently, Russia relies heavily on oil exports as a major source of income, but the excessive increase in oil prices has made India more cautious about importing in larger quantities, which is pushing up the exchange rate of the ruble.

Russia's manufacturing sector PMI increased to 52.7 in August, indicating relatively rapid growth due to continuous production growth and a significant increase in new orders in the past three months. Moreover, the inflation rate for raw materials costs has accelerated the most since March 2022, combined with the weakening ruble, leading to the fastest increase in selling prices in 16 months. Business confidence has also decreased to its lowest level in 6 months.

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also showed a similar increase, reaching 57.6 in August, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. This growth was driven by increased new orders and rising exports. Despite fluctuations in exchange rates, most service businesses in Russia have a positive outlook for the upcoming year due to increasing customer demand and continuous growth in new orders.

Russia's unemployment rate has decreased to 3%, which is lower than the expected rate of 3.2%. This is considered the lowest unemployment rate in history, primarily due to labor shortages in various sectors. Many workers had to leave the country and were sent for military service, resulting in a reduction of 75,000 unemployed individuals compared to the previous month, leaving approximately 2.276 million people unemployed.

It was found that Russia's economy expanded by 5% year-on-year in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth after a 12-month contraction in GDP due to the Kremlin's measures that emphasized military spending. This has led to increased demand and prices for various goods and services in Russia.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 97.8159, 98.0122, 98.3389

Support: 97.2929, 96.9662, 96.7699

Source: Investing.com